Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | LSU +163 MSST -213 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +10 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | MSST -5.1 (-4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.3 (-15.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -4.0 (-6.0) | 146.4 (-16.4) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -3.0 (-7.0) | 146.0 (-16.0) | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -4.0 (-6.0) | 143.9 (-13.9) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -3.8 (-6.2) | 145.1 (-15.1) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | MSST 80 – 66 LSU |
| Mar 12, 2025 | MSST 91 – 62 LSU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MSST 81 – 69 LSU |
| Feb 25, 2024 | MSST 87 – 67 LSU |
| Feb 9, 2023 | MSST 64 – 53 LSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LSU | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-6 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-7 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.4 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 69.1 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#87) | 11.7 (#44) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.24 (#83) | 1.81 (#48) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.43 (#92) | 2.51 (#33) |
| RPI | 0.535 (#110) | 0.566 (#59) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LSU | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 35.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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