Betting Lines
| Spread | LSU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | LSU -325 MSST +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +14 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | LSU -11.4 (-25.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.8 (-10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LSU -10.8 (-24.8) | 149.6 (-3.6) | 84% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LSU -9.9 (-23.9) | 151.9 (-5.9) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LSU -11.5 (-25.5) | 152.8 (-6.8) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LSU -9.9 (-23.9) | 150.2 (-4.2) | 84% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2025 | MSST 91 – 62 LSU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MSST 81 – 69 LSU |
| Mar 14, 2024 | MSST 70 – 60 LSU |
| Feb 25, 2024 | MSST 87 – 67 LSU |
| Feb 9, 2023 | MSST 64 – 53 LSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LSU | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 5-13 |
| Home | 9-8 | 8-8 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-5 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L4 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 77.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.5 | 81.8 |
| Massey | 13.1 (#41) | 5.0 (#104) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.71 (#61) | 0.93 (#92) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.63 (#51) | 1.39 (#84) |
| RPI | 0.559 (#72) | 0.524 (#123) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LSU | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.0% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 40.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 33.0% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 13.2% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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