Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | SJU +170 CONN -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +3 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | CONN -4.6 (+1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.7 (-34.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -2.8 (-0.2) | 150.4 (-27.4) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -2.2 (-0.8) | 152.8 (-29.8) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -2.0 (-1.0) | 153.4 (-30.4) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -2.3 (-0.7) | 153.8 (-30.8) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | SJU 72 – 52 CONN |
| Feb 26, 2026 | CONN 72 – 40 SJU |
| Feb 7, 2026 | SJU 81 – 72 CONN |
| Feb 23, 2025 | SJU 89 – 75 CONN |
| Feb 8, 2025 | SJU 68 – 62 CONN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 8-11 | 13-6 |
| Home | 13-6 | 14-2 |
| Away | 4-8 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.6 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 65.3 |
| Massey | 7.8 (#68) | 15.3 (#17) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.40 (#71) | 2.54 (#25) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.00 (#62) | 3.26 (#21) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#125) | 0.591 (#40) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 14.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 38.2% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 45.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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