Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -8.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Under |
| Money | UTU +280 GCU -350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTU +1 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | GCU -10.8 (+11.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.7 (-16.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -9.2 (+10.2) | 137.9 (-16.9) | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -9.0 (+10.0) | 138.9 (-17.9) | 18% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -8.2 (+9.2) | 139.4 (-18.4) | 22% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -8.7 (+9.7) | 138.6 (-17.6) | 27% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2025 | GCU 90 – 68 UTU |
| Jan 26, 2025 | GCU 79 – 66 UTU |
| Feb 16, 2024 | GCU 73 – 61 UTU |
| Jan 7, 2024 | GCU 75 – 65 UTU |
| Mar 4, 2023 | GCU 71 – 61 UTU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTU | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 23-8 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 13-5 |
| Home | 10-6 | 15-2 |
| Away | 3-11 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 62.0 |
| Massey | -7.8 (#296) | 6.0 (#91) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.93 (#252) | 1.38 (#74) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.26 (#260) | 1.45 (#92) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#231) | 0.546 (#93) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTU | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 36.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 43.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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