This will be our year, took a long time to come "This Will Be Our Year" - The Zombies
Western Athletic Conference · Burns Arena · March 4, 2023
Betting Lines
O/U 145.0 Under
Money UTU -125 / GCU +105
Model Predictions
Spread Total UTU win
Actual GCU +10 132 Lost
Massey UTU -1.4 (-11.4)
Massey Totals 146.4 (-14.4)
Bradley-Terry 44%
Weighted B-T 46%
Baseline ML UTU -1.1 (-11.1) 150.0 (-18.0) 54%
Baseline Plus ML UTU -0.5 (-10.5) 147.7 (-15.7) 53%
Efficiency Plus ML GCU -0.3 (-9.7) 145.7 (-13.7) 50%
Baseline Tuned ML UTU -1.3 (-11.3) 148.7 (-16.7) 56%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 7, 2025 GCU 9068 UTU
Jan 26, 2025 GCU 7966 UTU
Feb 16, 2024 GCU 7361 UTU
Jan 7, 2024 GCU 7565 UTU
Jan 19, 2023 GCU 8985 UTU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UTU GCU
Overall 14-19 24-12
Conference 5-13 11-7
Home 9-5 14-4
Away 3-13 6-5
Neutral 2-1 5-3
Last 5 2-3 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 73.9 72.2
Avg Pts Against 75.0 69.1
Massey 0.9 (#154) 3.0 (#123)
Bradley-Terry -0.26 (#201) 0.58 (#123)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.16 (#183) 0.72 (#119)
RPI 0.476 (#234) 0.527 (#128)
Shooting & Four Factors UTU GCU
FG% 45.2% 43.9%
3PT% 38.2% 35.9%
REB / G 33.3 36.1
OREB / G 9.6 10.7
AST / TO 0.81 0.88
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 53.2% 51.1%
TOV% 21.4% 18.7%
ORB% 28.9% 31.7%
FT Rate 31.8% 26.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 54.0% 47.2%
Opp TOV% 20.3% 15.7%
DRB% 73.0% 68.8%
Opp FT Rate 26.0% 22.1%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.