Trouble's gonna come to you "Your Time is Gonna Come" - Led Zeppelin
Western Athletic Conference · Burns Arena · January 7, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread GCU -13.5 Home covered
O/U 148.5 Under
Money UTU +700 / GCU -900
Model Predictions
Spread Total UTU win
Actual GCU +10 140 Lost
Massey GCU -10.7 (+0.7)
Massey Totals 151.4 (-11.4)
Bradley-Terry 5%
Weighted B-T 2%
Baseline ML GCU -11.1 (+1.1) 150.1 (-10.1) 15%
Baseline Plus ML GCU -11.3 (+1.3) 149.9 (-9.9) 15%
Efficiency Plus ML GCU -11.1 (+1.1) 148.8 (-8.8) 16%
Baseline Tuned ML GCU -10.9 (+0.9) 148.7 (-8.7) 15%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 7, 2025 GCU 9068 UTU
Jan 26, 2025 GCU 7966 UTU
Feb 16, 2024 GCU 7361 UTU
Mar 4, 2023 GCU 7161 UTU
Jan 19, 2023 GCU 8985 UTU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UTU GCU
Overall 11-20 30-5
Conference 7-13 17-3
Home 6-7 16-0
Away 4-13 8-3
Neutral 0-0 5-2
Last 5 1-4 5-0
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 70.4 77.8
Avg Pts Against 77.3 66.8
Massey -5.4 (#266) 9.4 (#56)
Bradley-Terry -0.44 (#217) 3.29 (#9)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.57 (#218) 4.18 (#9)
RPI 0.484 (#206) 0.607 (#32)
Shooting & Four Factors UTU GCU
FG% 42.9% 47.6%
3PT% 36.2% 33.5%
REB / G 34.5 38.8
OREB / G 9.5 12.4
AST / TO 0.85 0.93
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.2% 53.6%
TOV% 20.5% 18.1%
ORB% 26.4% 37.8%
FT Rate 22.6% 34.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.9% 47.5%
Opp TOV% 18.4% 19.3%
DRB% 66.5% 71.8%
Opp FT Rate 27.4% 23.7%

Game Analysis

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