Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | UTU +700 GCU -900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +10 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | GCU -10.7 (+0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.4 (-11.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -11.1 (+1.1) | 148.8 (-8.8) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -10.9 (+0.9) | 148.7 (-8.7) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -11.1 (+1.1) | 150.1 (-10.1) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -11.3 (+1.3) | 149.9 (-9.9) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2025 | GCU 90 – 68 UTU |
| Jan 26, 2025 | GCU 79 – 66 UTU |
| Feb 16, 2024 | GCU 73 – 61 UTU |
| Mar 4, 2023 | GCU 71 – 61 UTU |
| Jan 19, 2023 | GCU 89 – 85 UTU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTU | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 30-5 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 17-3 |
| Home | 6-7 | 16-0 |
| Away | 4-13 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 77.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.3 | 66.8 |
| Massey | -5.4 (#266) | 9.4 (#56) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.44 (#217) | 3.29 (#9) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.57 (#218) | 4.18 (#9) |
| RPI | 0.484 (#206) | 0.607 (#32) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTU | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 37.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 34.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 66.5% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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