Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 114.5 Over |
| Money | SIU -800 EVAN +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +7 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | SIU -13.9 (-6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 112.9 (+18.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -9.4 (-2.4) | 123.2 (+7.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -9.8 (-2.8) | 126.4 (+4.6) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -10.2 (-3.2) | 126.4 (+4.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -10.0 (-3.0) | 123.5 (+7.5) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | SIU 81 – 67 EVAN |
| Feb 13, 2026 | SIU 86 – 60 EVAN |
| Feb 6, 2025 | SIU 68 – 59 EVAN |
| Jan 1, 2025 | EVAN 68 – 53 SIU |
| Feb 25, 2024 | SIU 65 – 53 EVAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 6-24 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 2-16 |
| Home | 11-4 | 4-9 |
| Away | 4-8 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.7 | 58.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.6 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#132) | -8.8 (#307) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.37 (#209) | -1.78 (#311) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.26 (#196) | -1.81 (#293) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#239) | 0.427 (#306) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 39.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 28.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 5.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 23.3% | 16.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 77.5% | 78.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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