Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | SIU -340 EVAN +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EVAN +15 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | SIU -12.0 (-27.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.2 (-19.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -8.4 (-23.4) | 136.6 (-15.6) | 81% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -9.6 (-24.6) | 138.2 (-17.2) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -8.2 (-23.2) | 140.5 (-19.5) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -8.5 (-23.5) | 137.0 (-16.0) | 77% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | SIU 81 – 67 EVAN |
| Feb 13, 2026 | SIU 86 – 60 EVAN |
| Feb 6, 2025 | SIU 68 – 59 EVAN |
| Feb 25, 2024 | SIU 65 – 53 EVAN |
| Jan 18, 2023 | SIU 77 – 70 EVAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 8-12 |
| Home | 7-7 | 7-9 |
| Away | 5-8 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 65.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.5 | 71.4 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#209) | -10.6 (#334) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.68 (#232) | -1.76 (#312) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.74 (#224) | -2.05 (#297) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#168) | 0.405 (#332) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 39.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 27.3% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 21.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 28.4% |
Game Analysis
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