Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | SIU -900 EVAN +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +26 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | SIU -13.4 (+12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.4 (+2.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -10.0 (+16.0) | 141.0 (+5.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -10.7 (+15.3) | 137.9 (+8.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -11.1 (+14.9) | 138.8 (+7.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -11.2 (+14.8) | 140.4 (+5.6) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | SIU 81 – 67 EVAN |
| Feb 6, 2025 | SIU 68 – 59 EVAN |
| Jan 1, 2025 | EVAN 68 – 53 SIU |
| Feb 25, 2024 | SIU 65 – 53 EVAN |
| Jan 18, 2023 | SIU 77 – 70 EVAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 3-17 |
| Home | 8-6 | 5-10 |
| Away | 7-8 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 65.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 78.3 |
| Massey | 3.3 (#119) | -7.1 (#275) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.17 (#191) | -1.53 (#300) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#180) | -1.75 (#288) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#174) | 0.443 (#283) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 28.2% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 23.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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