Betting Lines
| Spread | EVAN -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | EVAN -125 SIU +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EVAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +9 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | SIU -0.4 (-8.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.3 (-10.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -0.1 (-8.9) | 139.6 (-12.6) | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -0.8 (-8.2) | 142.5 (-15.5) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -0.4 (-8.6) | 141.6 (-14.6) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -0.1 (-8.9) | 140.6 (-13.6) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | SIU 81 – 67 EVAN |
| Feb 13, 2026 | SIU 86 – 60 EVAN |
| Jan 1, 2025 | EVAN 68 – 53 SIU |
| Feb 25, 2024 | SIU 65 – 53 EVAN |
| Jan 18, 2023 | SIU 77 – 70 EVAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EVAN | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 8-12 |
| Home | 7-9 | 7-7 |
| Away | 4-11 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.1 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 75.5 |
| Massey | -5.4 (#252) | -1.9 (#193) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.54 (#219) | -0.25 (#197) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.62 (#218) | -0.29 (#191) |
| RPI | 0.472 (#225) | 0.506 (#170) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EVAN | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 22.3% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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