Betting Lines
| Spread | ACU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Over |
| Money | TAR +100 ACU -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TAR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ACU +14 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | TAR -1.0 (-15.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.0 (+6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ACU -0.1 (-13.9) | 139.1 (+0.9) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TAR -0.1 (-14.1) | 140.1 (-0.1) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ACU -0.1 (-13.9) | 141.5 (-1.5) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ACU -0.3 (-13.7) | 140.3 (-0.3) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | ACU 84 – 78 TAR |
| Feb 17, 2026 | TAR 65 – 62 ACU |
| Feb 14, 2026 | ACU 73 – 59 TAR |
| Jan 9, 2026 | ACU 84 – 80 TAR |
| Feb 28, 2025 | TAR 67 – 52 ACU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TAR | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 25-11 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-5 | 14-3 |
| Away | 4-12 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.1 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 69.5 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#179) | 1.2 (#139) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#203) | 0.37 (#145) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.02 (#180) | 0.45 (#140) |
| RPI | 0.495 (#182) | 0.511 (#161) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TAR | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 29.8 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.9% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.8% | 28.2% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 34.6% |
Game Analysis
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