Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -19.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 115.5 Over |
| Money | SDSU -4000 AF +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +12 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | SDSU -17.4 (-5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 106.5 (+33.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -18.6 (-6.6) | 123.5 (+16.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -13.4 (-1.4) | 125.7 (+14.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -14.0 (-2.0) | 125.7 (+14.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -15.2 (-3.2) | 126.5 (+13.5) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | SDSU 88 – 54 AF |
| Dec 18, 2025 | SDSU 81 – 58 AF |
| Jan 23, 2025 | SDSU 77 – 76 AF |
| Jan 9, 2025 | SDSU 67 – 38 AF |
| Feb 7, 2024 | SDSU 77 – 64 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-9 | 11-18 |
| Conference | 13-4 | 4-13 |
| Home | 14-1 | 7-6 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 59.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.1 | 66.0 |
| Massey | 10.1 (#50) | -4.3 (#245) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.96 (#42) | -0.06 (#179) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.42 (#41) | -0.32 (#199) |
| RPI | 0.589 (#44) | 0.474 (#217) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 27.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 5.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 19.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 17.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.3% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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