Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Under |
| Money | ILL -650 NU +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +7 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -10.0 (-3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.1 (-6.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -10.9 (-3.9) | 143.0 (-4.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -9.7 (-2.7) | 142.9 (-3.9) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -9.8 (-2.8) | 142.1 (-3.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -9.7 (-2.7) | 143.6 (-4.6) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | ILL 84 – 44 NU |
| Jan 15, 2026 | ILL 79 – 68 NU |
| Jan 26, 2025 | ILL 83 – 74 NU |
| Dec 7, 2024 | NU 70 – 66 ILL |
| Jan 25, 2024 | NU 96 – 91 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | NU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 7-13 |
| Home | 13-3 | 10-6 |
| Away | 7-4 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.4 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 70.6 |
| Massey | 16.4 (#15) | 9.4 (#54) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.74 (#18) | 1.25 (#87) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.25 (#22) | 1.61 (#83) |
| RPI | 0.613 (#26) | 0.530 (#117) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | NU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.7% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 76.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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