Betting Lines
| Spread | UVM -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.0 Over |
| Money | UALB +550 UVM -800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UALB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVM +13 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | UVM -10.7 (-2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.9 (+10.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVM -8.3 (-4.7) | 132.0 (+7.0) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVM -9.4 (-3.6) | 132.5 (+6.5) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVM -8.6 (-4.4) | 134.1 (+4.9) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVM -9.4 (-3.6) | 132.0 (+7.0) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | UVM 69 – 56 UALB |
| Jan 19, 2026 | UALB 75 – 68 UVM |
| Mar 5, 2025 | UVM 79 – 71 UALB |
| Feb 9, 2025 | UVM 68 – 62 UALB |
| Mar 9, 2024 | UVM 75 – 72 UALB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UALB | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 28-6 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 17-1 |
| Home | 4-8 | 16-0 |
| Away | 8-9 | 10-4 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.8 | 74.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.9 | 61.1 |
| Massey | -6.1 (#272) | 7.6 (#77) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.22 (#280) | 1.50 (#66) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.56 (#284) | 1.79 (#71) |
| RPI | 0.445 (#273) | 0.578 (#54) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UALB | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 49.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 6.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 57.7% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 21.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 81.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 15.9% |
Game Analysis
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