Betting Lines
| Spread | UVM -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | UVM -455 UALB +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVM +13 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | UVM -9.4 (+3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.5 (-18.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVM -9.2 (+3.8) | 139.1 (-14.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVM -7.4 (+5.6) | 138.7 (-13.7) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVM -8.4 (+4.6) | 139.0 (-14.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVM -8.2 (+4.8) | 138.8 (-13.8) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 19, 2026 | UALB 75 – 68 UVM |
| Mar 5, 2025 | UVM 79 – 71 UALB |
| Feb 9, 2025 | UVM 68 – 62 UALB |
| Mar 9, 2024 | UVM 75 – 72 UALB |
| Feb 23, 2024 | UVM 94 – 80 UALB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVM | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 7-9 |
| Home | 13-3 | 6-5 |
| Away | 8-7 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 68.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#230) | -10.5 (#315) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.64 (#232) | -2.18 (#342) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#227) | -2.54 (#333) |
| RPI | 0.501 (#187) | 0.431 (#315) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVM | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 17.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 77.1% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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