Betting Lines
| Spread | UVM -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | UVM -210 UALB +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVM +8 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | UVM -5.0 (+3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.5 (+18.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVM -4.2 (+3.8) | 135.4 (+14.6) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVM -6.0 (+2.0) | 133.7 (+16.3) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVM -5.0 (+3.0) | 133.8 (+16.2) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVM -5.3 (+2.7) | 135.4 (+14.6) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | UVM 69 – 56 UALB |
| Jan 19, 2026 | UALB 75 – 68 UVM |
| Feb 9, 2025 | UVM 68 – 62 UALB |
| Mar 9, 2024 | UVM 75 – 72 UALB |
| Feb 23, 2024 | UVM 94 – 80 UALB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVM | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 13-3 | 8-8 |
| Home | 13-3 | 7-7 |
| Away | 7-8 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.5 | 73.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.0 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -4.5 (#239) | -6.2 (#268) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#184) | -0.93 (#256) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#191) | -1.14 (#254) |
| RPI | 0.530 (#121) | 0.466 (#248) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVM | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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