Betting Lines
| Spread | UVM -11.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | UALB +430 UVM -600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UALB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVM +14 | 174 | Lost |
| Massey | UVM -5.3 (-8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (+28.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVM -5.6 (-8.4) | 142.8 (+31.2) | 25% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVM -6.9 (-7.1) | 144.6 (+29.4) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVM -5.6 (-8.4) | 142.7 (+31.3) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVM -5.4 (-8.6) | 143.5 (+30.5) | 24% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | UVM 69 – 56 UALB |
| Jan 19, 2026 | UALB 75 – 68 UVM |
| Mar 5, 2025 | UVM 79 – 71 UALB |
| Feb 9, 2025 | UVM 68 – 62 UALB |
| Mar 9, 2024 | UVM 75 – 72 UALB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UALB | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 15-1 |
| Home | 7-5 | 16-1 |
| Away | 4-13 | 10-4 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.0 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.4 | 63.8 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#252) | 4.2 (#112) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.86 (#259) | 1.23 (#86) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.16 (#267) | 1.53 (#90) |
| RPI | 0.480 (#217) | 0.578 (#53) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UALB | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 22.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 77.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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