Betting Lines
| Spread | UVM -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | UVM -2000 UALB +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVM +3 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | UVM -12.3 (-9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.3 (-0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVM -13.9 (-10.9) | 146.4 (+0.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVM -13.7 (-10.7) | 145.8 (+1.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVM -13.0 (-10.0) | 143.6 (+3.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVM -12.4 (-9.4) | 142.1 (+4.9) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | UVM 69 – 56 UALB |
| Jan 19, 2026 | UALB 75 – 68 UVM |
| Mar 5, 2025 | UVM 79 – 71 UALB |
| Feb 9, 2025 | UVM 68 – 62 UALB |
| Feb 23, 2024 | UVM 94 – 80 UALB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVM | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 15-1 | 5-11 |
| Home | 16-1 | 7-5 |
| Away | 10-4 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 78.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.8 | 79.4 |
| Massey | 5.0 (#103) | -4.1 (#241) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.42 (#74) | -0.98 (#278) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.67 (#77) | -1.15 (#276) |
| RPI | 0.591 (#33) | 0.463 (#260) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVM | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 22.2% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 77.2% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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