Betting Lines
| Spread | UVM -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | UALB +200 UVM -245 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UALB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UALB +7 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | UVM -4.0 (+11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.0 (-6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVM -4.1 (+11.1) | 140.6 (+2.4) | 39% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVM -4.1 (+11.1) | 138.0 (+5.0) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVM -4.2 (+11.2) | 140.9 (+2.1) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UVM -3.8 (+10.8) | 140.5 (+2.5) | 34% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | UVM 69 – 56 UALB |
| Mar 5, 2025 | UVM 79 – 71 UALB |
| Feb 9, 2025 | UVM 68 – 62 UALB |
| Mar 9, 2024 | UVM 75 – 72 UALB |
| Feb 23, 2024 | UVM 94 – 80 UALB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UALB | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 12-4 |
| Home | 6-5 | 13-3 |
| Away | 4-13 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.7 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 68.8 |
| Massey | -10.0 (#310) | -2.6 (#203) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.10 (#334) | -0.22 (#194) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.35 (#320) | -0.26 (#192) |
| RPI | 0.405 (#332) | 0.488 (#198) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UALB | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 15.8% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 13.5% |
| DRB% | 63.5% | 77.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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