Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -16.0 Push |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | GONZ -2000 SMC +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +16 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -16.0 (+0.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.0 (-14.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -13.3 (+2.7) | 144.0 (-12.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -12.9 (+3.1) | 150.9 (-18.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -12.9 (+3.1) | 145.4 (-13.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -13.5 (+2.5) | 145.3 (-13.3) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | SMC 70 – 59 GONZ |
| Feb 1, 2026 | GONZ 73 – 65 SMC |
| Mar 12, 2025 | GONZ 58 – 51 SMC |
| Feb 23, 2025 | SMC 74 – 67 GONZ |
| Feb 2, 2025 | SMC 62 – 58 GONZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-4 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 13-1 | 12-3 |
| Home | 16-0 | 16-0 |
| Away | 5-1 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 87.2 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 61.3 |
| Massey | 25.4 (#1) | 12.4 (#24) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.52 (#4) | 2.41 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.79 (#1) | 2.74 (#33) |
| RPI | 0.614 (#23) | 0.632 (#8) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.5% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 42.7 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.61 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.5% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.0% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 78.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.0% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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