Betting Lines
| Spread | Pick'em Away covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Under |
| Money | MORG -110 NCCU -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MORG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCCU +10 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | NCCU -3.5 (-6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.0 (-9.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCCU -1.1 (-8.9) | 145.0 (-7.0) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCCU -3.1 (-6.9) | 146.0 (-8.0) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCCU -3.3 (-6.7) | 147.4 (-9.4) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCCU -3.9 (-6.1) | 147.7 (-9.7) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | NCCU 80 – 76 MORG |
| Jan 12, 2026 | NCCU 89 – 78 MORG |
| Feb 18, 2025 | MORG 92 – 78 NCCU |
| Jan 7, 2025 | MORG 102 – 98 NCCU |
| Mar 5, 2024 | MORG 88 – 79 NCCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MORG | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-15 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 7-6 | 8-5 |
| Home | 8-3 | 9-2 |
| Away | 3-9 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.0 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -12.8 (#340) | -6.2 (#271) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.25 (#331) | -1.07 (#264) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.74 (#335) | -1.71 (#283) |
| RPI | 0.399 (#330) | 0.455 (#255) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MORG | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.3% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 28.5% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 0.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.4% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 23.6% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.8% | 23.1% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.7% | 33.4% |
Game Analysis
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