Betting Lines
| Spread | NCCU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | NCCU -230 MORG +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCCU +4 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | NCCU -5.3 (-1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.9 (+3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCCU -4.2 (-0.2) | 141.4 (+14.6) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCCU -3.9 (+0.1) | 143.5 (+12.5) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCCU -3.4 (+0.6) | 143.2 (+12.8) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCCU -3.1 (+0.9) | 142.3 (+13.7) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 12, 2026 | NCCU 89 – 78 MORG |
| Feb 18, 2025 | MORG 92 – 78 NCCU |
| Jan 7, 2025 | MORG 102 – 98 NCCU |
| Mar 5, 2024 | MORG 88 – 79 NCCU |
| Feb 6, 2024 | MORG 79 – 72 NCCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCCU | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 8-6 | 10-4 |
| Home | 8-5 | 9-6 |
| Away | 4-12 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.3 | 80.1 |
| Massey | -14.3 (#346) | -16.6 (#355) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.35 (#345) | -2.05 (#334) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.07 (#347) | -3.21 (#348) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#312) | 0.404 (#346) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCCU | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 30.6 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.1% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 31.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.6% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 62.2% | 65.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 38.8% |
Game Analysis
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