Betting Lines
| Spread | NCCU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | MORG +136 NCCU -162 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MORG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCCU +11 | 167 | Lost |
| Massey | NCCU -2.1 (-8.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.0 (+17.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCCU -1.4 (-9.6) | 136.4 (+30.6) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCCU -1.8 (-9.2) | 142.8 (+24.2) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCCU -2.0 (-9.0) | 142.9 (+24.1) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCCU -0.7 (-10.3) | 140.6 (+26.4) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | NCCU 80 – 76 MORG |
| Feb 18, 2025 | MORG 92 – 78 NCCU |
| Jan 7, 2025 | MORG 102 – 98 NCCU |
| Mar 5, 2024 | MORG 88 – 79 NCCU |
| Feb 6, 2024 | MORG 79 – 72 NCCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MORG | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 10-4 | 8-6 |
| Home | 9-6 | 8-5 |
| Away | 5-9 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.1 | 77.3 |
| Massey | -19.4 (#361) | -13.8 (#344) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.28 (#353) | -2.41 (#335) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.17 (#354) | -3.46 (#345) |
| RPI | 0.339 (#363) | 0.425 (#303) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MORG | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.5% | 37.8% |
| 3PT% | 27.6% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.0% | 42.9% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 28.4% | 31.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.4% | 57.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 62.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 39.0% | 29.2% |
Game Analysis
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