Betting Lines
| Spread | NCCU -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | MORG +333 NCCU -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MORG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MORG +9 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | NCCU -6.7 (+15.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.8 (+17.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCCU -5.8 (+14.8) | 147.0 (+20.0) | 32% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCCU -6.2 (+15.2) | 146.3 (+20.7) | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCCU -5.4 (+14.4) | 146.7 (+20.3) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NCCU -5.9 (+14.9) | 148.4 (+18.6) | 32% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | NCCU 80 – 76 MORG |
| Jan 12, 2026 | NCCU 89 – 78 MORG |
| Feb 18, 2025 | MORG 92 – 78 NCCU |
| Jan 7, 2025 | MORG 102 – 98 NCCU |
| Feb 6, 2024 | MORG 79 – 72 NCCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MORG | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 18-13 |
| Conference | 7-7 | 9-5 |
| Home | 8-5 | 11-2 |
| Away | 3-12 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.0 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -13.8 (#346) | -3.8 (#238) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.07 (#336) | -0.85 (#266) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.44 (#332) | -1.02 (#264) |
| RPI | 0.420 (#324) | 0.459 (#265) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MORG | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 29.0% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 61.9% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.0% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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