Betting Lines
| Spread | NCCU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | NCCU -400 MORG +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MORG +7 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | NCCU -13.5 (-20.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.2 (+3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCCU -11.7 (-18.7) | 142.5 (+8.5) | 87% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCCU -9.9 (-16.9) | 142.3 (+8.7) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCCU -10.5 (-17.5) | 143.8 (+7.2) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NCCU -11.5 (-18.5) | 143.5 (+7.5) | 86% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | NCCU 80 – 76 MORG |
| Jan 12, 2026 | NCCU 89 – 78 MORG |
| Feb 18, 2025 | MORG 92 – 78 NCCU |
| Jan 7, 2025 | MORG 102 – 98 NCCU |
| Mar 5, 2024 | MORG 88 – 79 NCCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCCU | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-13 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 7-7 |
| Home | 11-2 | 8-5 |
| Away | 6-9 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 80.0 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#244) | -14.1 (#343) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#231) | -2.28 (#343) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.81 (#240) | -2.77 (#340) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#229) | 0.406 (#326) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCCU | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 61.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 29.3% |
Game Analysis
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