Betting Lines
| Spread | NCCU -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Over |
| Money | NCCU -500 MORG +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MORG +14 | 170 | Lost |
| Massey | NCCU -8.2 (-22.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.8 (+6.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCCU -5.0 (-19.0) | 156.5 (+13.5) | 73% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCCU -6.8 (-20.8) | 155.7 (+14.3) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCCU -5.7 (-19.7) | 156.6 (+13.4) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NCCU -5.6 (-19.6) | 155.8 (+14.2) | 75% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | NCCU 80 – 76 MORG |
| Jan 12, 2026 | NCCU 89 – 78 MORG |
| Jan 7, 2025 | MORG 102 – 98 NCCU |
| Mar 5, 2024 | MORG 88 – 79 NCCU |
| Feb 6, 2024 | MORG 79 – 72 NCCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCCU | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 6-8 | 7-7 |
| Home | 10-4 | 11-4 |
| Away | 2-13 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.8 | 82.8 |
| Massey | -8.0 (#293) | -13.1 (#347) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.58 (#311) | -2.18 (#336) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.27 (#321) | -2.72 (#336) |
| RPI | 0.432 (#307) | 0.374 (#354) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCCU | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 60.8% | 64.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.8% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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