Betting Lines
| Spread | NCCU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | MORG +150 NCCU -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MORG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MORG +4 | 200 | Won |
| Massey | NCCU -2.7 (+6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.9 (+41.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCCU -2.4 (+6.4) | 148.7 (+51.3) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCCU -1.9 (+5.9) | 150.7 (+49.3) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NCCU -2.7 (+6.7) | 154.6 (+45.4) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCCU -2.7 (+6.7) | 152.7 (+47.3) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | NCCU 80 – 76 MORG |
| Jan 12, 2026 | NCCU 89 – 78 MORG |
| Feb 18, 2025 | MORG 92 – 78 NCCU |
| Mar 5, 2024 | MORG 88 – 79 NCCU |
| Feb 6, 2024 | MORG 79 – 72 NCCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MORG | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 7-7 | 6-8 |
| Home | 11-4 | 10-4 |
| Away | 2-13 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.8 | 78.8 |
| Massey | -15.3 (#355) | -8.5 (#298) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.05 (#350) | -1.65 (#306) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.60 (#346) | -2.53 (#322) |
| RPI | 0.331 (#364) | 0.430 (#299) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MORG | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 29.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.1% | 56.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 22.8% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 60.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.2% | 32.8% |
Game Analysis
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