Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | HOU -550 MEM +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +10 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | HOU -13.1 (-23.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.8 (-13.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -12.9 (-22.9) | 141.2 (-13.2) | 86% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -12.3 (-22.3) | 139.7 (-11.7) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -12.2 (-22.2) | 142.9 (-14.9) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -12.3 (-22.3) | 143.4 (-15.4) | 86% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2023 | MEM 75 – 65 HOU |
| Mar 5, 2023 | HOU 67 – 65 MEM |
| Feb 19, 2023 | HOU 72 – 64 MEM |
| Mar 13, 2022 | HOU 71 – 53 MEM |
| Mar 6, 2022 | MEM 75 – 61 HOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-6 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 13-5 |
| Home | 16-1 | 13-2 |
| Away | 7-3 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 9-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.8 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 20.6 (#3) | 10.6 (#42) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.95 (#14) | 1.20 (#89) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.12 (#9) | 2.03 (#62) |
| RPI | 0.640 (#7) | 0.562 (#69) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 39.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 23.0% |
| ORB% | 37.8% | 37.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.8% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.7% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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