Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | HOU -1600 MEM +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +8 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -14.9 (-6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.0 (-5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -13.0 (-5.0) | 145.1 (-9.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -12.8 (-4.8) | 142.1 (-6.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -13.2 (-5.2) | 145.6 (-9.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -12.0 (-4.0) | 146.3 (-10.3) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2023 | MEM 75 – 65 HOU |
| Mar 5, 2023 | HOU 67 – 65 MEM |
| Mar 13, 2022 | HOU 71 – 53 MEM |
| Mar 6, 2022 | MEM 75 – 61 HOU |
| Feb 12, 2022 | MEM 69 – 59 HOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 33-4 | 26-9 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 13-5 |
| Home | 16-2 | 13-2 |
| Away | 11-0 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 79.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 57.5 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 21.6 (#2) | 10.3 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.49 (#1) | 2.04 (#36) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.69 (#1) | 2.76 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.639 (#4) | 0.599 (#25) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.56 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 37.6% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.6% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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