Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | MEM +175 HOU -210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +2 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | HOU -6.9 (+4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.5 (-9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -4.3 (+2.3) | 141.7 (-9.7) | 35% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -3.2 (+1.2) | 139.7 (-7.7) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -3.9 (+1.9) | 142.6 (-10.6) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -3.5 (+1.5) | 142.8 (-10.8) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2023 | MEM 75 – 65 HOU |
| Feb 19, 2023 | HOU 72 – 64 MEM |
| Mar 13, 2022 | HOU 71 – 53 MEM |
| Mar 6, 2022 | MEM 75 – 61 HOU |
| Feb 12, 2022 | MEM 69 – 59 HOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MEM | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-9 | 33-4 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 17-1 |
| Home | 13-2 | 16-2 |
| Away | 7-5 | 11-0 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 57.5 |
| Massey | 10.9 (#36) | 21.3 (#1) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.14 (#30) | 3.52 (#1) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.86 (#20) | 4.63 (#1) |
| RPI | 0.606 (#16) | 0.641 (#3) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MEM | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 38.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 42.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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