Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | MSU -190 IU +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +15 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -4.0 (+11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.5 (+2.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -4.6 (+10.4) | 134.7 (+2.3) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -4.7 (+10.3) | 135.8 (+1.2) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -4.5 (+10.5) | 136.5 (+0.5) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -4.7 (+10.3) | 136.5 (+0.5) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | MSU 77 – 64 IU |
| Jan 14, 2026 | MSU 81 – 60 IU |
| Feb 12, 2025 | IU 71 – 67 MSU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | IU 65 – 64 MSU |
| Feb 22, 2023 | MSU 80 – 65 IU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | IU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 9-11 |
| Home | 12-3 | 14-4 |
| Away | 5-6 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 12.3 (#24) | 11.4 (#35) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.75 (#20) | 1.85 (#50) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.36 (#19) | 2.36 (#48) |
| RPI | 0.610 (#23) | 0.567 (#63) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | IU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.8% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 43.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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