Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Under |
| Money | UVA -475 GT +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +10 | 116 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -9.3 (+0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.4 (-5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -8.5 (+1.5) | 122.9 (-6.9) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -8.4 (+1.6) | 129.9 (-13.9) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -9.1 (+0.9) | 128.9 (-12.9) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -8.9 (+1.1) | 124.5 (-8.5) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | UVA 94 – 68 GT |
| Mar 12, 2025 | GT 66 – 60 UVA |
| Feb 8, 2025 | UVA 75 – 61 GT |
| Mar 10, 2024 | UVA 72 – 57 GT |
| Jan 20, 2024 | UVA 75 – 66 GT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | GT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 5-15 |
| Home | 11-7 | 9-10 |
| Away | 7-6 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.4 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.1 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 6.8 (#83) | 0.6 (#153) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.31 (#76) | 0.09 (#171) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.53 (#88) | 0.34 (#148) |
| RPI | 0.555 (#80) | 0.473 (#212) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | GT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 17.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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