Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | GT +110 UVA -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +9 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | UVA -0.5 (-8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.5 (+14.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -0.1 (-8.9) | 133.9 (+7.1) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -0.4 (-8.6) | 132.2 (+8.8) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -0.5 (-8.5) | 131.2 (+9.8) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -0.3 (-8.7) | 131.3 (+9.7) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | UVA 94 – 68 GT |
| Mar 12, 2025 | GT 66 – 60 UVA |
| Feb 8, 2025 | UVA 75 – 61 GT |
| Mar 10, 2024 | UVA 72 – 57 GT |
| Dec 31, 2022 | UVA 74 – 56 GT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GT | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 13-7 |
| Home | 8-7 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-9 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 62.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 59.8 |
| Massey | 3.3 (#117) | 7.6 (#74) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.08 (#93) | 1.66 (#57) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.23 (#99) | 1.94 (#69) |
| RPI | 0.555 (#94) | 0.576 (#60) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GT | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 13.2% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.6% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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