Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Over |
| Money | UVA -500 GT +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +15 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -8.8 (+6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.2 (+6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -7.6 (+7.4) | 128.5 (+0.5) | 79% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | UVA -8.5 (+6.5) | 125.3 (+3.7) | 77% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | UVA -7.5 (+7.5) | 126.8 (+2.2) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -6.7 (+8.3) | 126.6 (+2.4) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | UVA 94 – 68 GT |
| Mar 12, 2025 | GT 66 – 60 UVA |
| Feb 8, 2025 | UVA 75 – 61 GT |
| Jan 20, 2024 | UVA 75 – 66 GT |
| Dec 31, 2022 | UVA 74 – 56 GT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | GT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 7-13 |
| Home | 15-2 | 8-7 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.9 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 59.8 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 8.5 (#70) | 2.9 (#127) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.00 (#38) | 0.97 (#99) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.08 (#55) | 0.83 (#118) |
| RPI | 0.584 (#42) | 0.527 (#127) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | GT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.80 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 16.8% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 12.6% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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