Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | UVA -145 GT +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +14 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -2.4 (+11.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.7 (+5.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -3.1 (+10.9) | 135.4 (+0.6) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -3.4 (+10.6) | 131.6 (+4.4) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -2.6 (+11.4) | 133.6 (+2.4) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -3.5 (+10.5) | 136.0 (-0.0) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | UVA 94 – 68 GT |
| Mar 12, 2025 | GT 66 – 60 UVA |
| Mar 10, 2024 | UVA 72 – 57 GT |
| Jan 20, 2024 | UVA 75 – 66 GT |
| Dec 31, 2022 | UVA 74 – 56 GT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | GT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 10-10 |
| Home | 10-7 | 14-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.8 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 72.7 |
| Massey | 3.5 (#113) | 4.2 (#104) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#127) | 0.37 (#144) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.95 (#103) | 0.50 (#138) |
| RPI | 0.517 (#147) | 0.485 (#209) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | GT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 30.4 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 23.1% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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