Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | GT +700 UVA -1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +26 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | UVA -13.7 (-12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.1 (+10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -12.7 (-13.3) | 142.9 (+19.1) | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -12.6 (-13.4) | 145.7 (+16.3) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -13.3 (-12.7) | 143.8 (+18.2) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -14.1 (-11.9) | 145.3 (+16.7) | 13% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2025 | GT 66 – 60 UVA |
| Feb 8, 2025 | UVA 75 – 61 GT |
| Mar 10, 2024 | UVA 72 – 57 GT |
| Jan 20, 2024 | UVA 75 – 66 GT |
| Dec 31, 2022 | UVA 74 – 56 GT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GT | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 30-6 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 15-3 |
| Home | 10-9 | 16-1 |
| Away | 1-9 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L12 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 80.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#150) | 17.7 (#23) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#181) | 3.44 (#15) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#188) | 4.30 (#16) |
| RPI | 0.477 (#226) | 0.622 (#24) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GT | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 41.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 14.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 39.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 45.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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