Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Over |
| Money | GT +333 UVA -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +18 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | UVA -4.8 (-13.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.2 (+5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -5.2 (-12.8) | 129.1 (+0.9) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -3.5 (-14.5) | 132.2 (-2.2) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -3.0 (-15.0) | 132.9 (-2.9) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -2.3 (-15.7) | 130.3 (-0.3) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | UVA 94 – 68 GT |
| Mar 12, 2025 | GT 66 – 60 UVA |
| Feb 8, 2025 | UVA 75 – 61 GT |
| Mar 10, 2024 | UVA 72 – 57 GT |
| Jan 20, 2024 | UVA 75 – 66 GT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GT | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 15-5 |
| Home | 11-6 | 15-1 |
| Away | 3-9 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.7 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 60.5 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#131) | 11.8 (#29) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#142) | 2.84 (#15) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#144) | 3.67 (#14) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#131) | 0.608 (#29) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GT | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 33.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 17.3% |
Game Analysis
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