Betting Lines
| Spread | GT -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | GT -125 UVA +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GT +6 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | GT -0.4 (+5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.4 (-4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GT -0.3 (+5.7) | 131.5 (-5.5) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -0.4 (+6.4) | 131.6 (-5.6) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GT -0.4 (+5.6) | 132.5 (-6.5) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -0.1 (+6.1) | 132.3 (-6.3) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | UVA 94 – 68 GT |
| Feb 8, 2025 | UVA 75 – 61 GT |
| Mar 10, 2024 | UVA 72 – 57 GT |
| Jan 20, 2024 | UVA 75 – 66 GT |
| Dec 31, 2022 | UVA 74 – 56 GT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GT | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 8-12 |
| Home | 14-6 | 10-7 |
| Away | 2-9 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 64.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 66.8 |
| Massey | 4.3 (#99) | 3.9 (#105) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.70 (#115) | 0.88 (#96) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.79 (#115) | 1.21 (#86) |
| RPI | 0.494 (#189) | 0.531 (#114) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GT | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 29.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 22.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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