Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Over |
| Money | FAIR -125 NIA +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +20 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | FAIR -2.6 (+17.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.2 (-1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -1.6 (+18.4) | 130.5 (-4.5) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -1.4 (+18.6) | 131.4 (-5.4) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -1.6 (+18.4) | 131.4 (-5.4) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -2.2 (+17.8) | 132.3 (-6.3) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 23, 2026 | FAIR 62 – 61 NIA |
| Jan 4, 2026 | FAIR 83 – 75 NIA |
| Jan 17, 2025 | FAIR 70 – 66 NIA |
| Feb 17, 2024 | NIA 65 – 63 FAIR |
| Jan 13, 2024 | NIA 96 – 72 FAIR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 9-11 |
| Home | 6-9 | 7-4 |
| Away | 8-8 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 65.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 66.0 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#203) | -1.2 (#193) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.79 (#241) | -0.28 (#200) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.97 (#244) | -0.46 (#208) |
| RPI | 0.470 (#224) | 0.492 (#185) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 21.7% |
| FT Rate | 16.6% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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