Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -7.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | ECU +250 SMU -320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +14 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | SMU -6.7 (-7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.0 (-2.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -6.4 (-7.6) | 144.8 (+1.2) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -5.5 (-8.5) | 144.2 (+1.8) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -6.4 (-7.6) | 144.6 (+1.4) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -5.8 (-8.2) | 145.3 (+0.7) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2024 | SMU 80 – 77 ECU |
| Jan 13, 2024 | SMU 75 – 64 ECU |
| Feb 19, 2023 | SMU 86 – 70 ECU |
| Feb 4, 2023 | ECU 77 – 72 SMU |
| Feb 8, 2021 | SMU 71 – 56 ECU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-15 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 6-11 | 13-4 |
| Home | 12-4 | 17-1 |
| Away | 2-7 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 67.1 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#181) | 9.0 (#59) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.27 (#154) | 1.84 (#53) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#171) | 2.16 (#56) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#187) | 0.590 (#40) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 16.5% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.