Somehow I stayed thin, while the other guys got fat "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
East Carolina Pirates
66 80
FINAL Conference
SMU Mustangs
American Conference · Williams Arena at Minges Coliseum · February 12, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread SMU -7.0 Away covered
O/U 142.5 Over
Money ECU +250 / SMU -320
Model Predictions
Spread Total ECU win
Actual SMU +14 146 Lost
Massey SMU -6.7 (-7.3)
Massey Totals 148.0 (-2.0)
Bradley-Terry 26%
Weighted B-T 19%
Efficiency Plus ML SMU -6.4 (-7.6) 144.8 (+1.2) 30%
Baseline Tuned ML SMU -5.5 (-8.5) 144.2 (+1.8) 27%
Baseline ML SMU -6.4 (-7.6) 144.6 (+1.4) 30%
Baseline Plus ML SMU -5.8 (-8.2) 145.3 (+0.7) 30%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 7, 2024 SMU 8077 ECU
Jan 13, 2024 SMU 7564 ECU
Feb 19, 2023 SMU 8670 ECU
Feb 4, 2023 ECU 7772 SMU
Feb 8, 2021 SMU 7156 ECU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ECU SMU
Overall 15-15 24-9
Conference 6-11 13-4
Home 12-4 17-1
Away 2-7 6-5
Neutral 1-4 1-3
Last 5 1-4 4-1
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 68.8 73.8
Avg Pts Against 70.9 67.1
Massey -0.8 (#181) 9.0 (#59)
Bradley-Terry 0.27 (#154) 1.84 (#53)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.14 (#171) 2.16 (#56)
RPI 0.492 (#187) 0.590 (#40)
Shooting & Four Factors ECU SMU
FG% 41.0% 45.2%
3PT% 34.0% 36.8%
REB / G 35.8 38.1
OREB / G 10.4 10.0
AST / TO 1.17 1.09
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 47.7% 53.0%
TOV% 18.8% 18.5%
ORB% 28.4% 29.5%
FT Rate 24.6% 27.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.8% 45.7%
Opp TOV% 18.5% 16.9%
DRB% 71.6% 70.5%
Opp FT Rate 21.6% 16.5%

Game Analysis

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