Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | ECU +163 SMU -213 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +11 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | SMU -9.2 (-1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.0 (+6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -7.4 (-3.6) | 132.7 (+6.3) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -7.2 (-3.8) | 133.4 (+5.6) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -7.7 (-3.3) | 134.4 (+4.6) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -8.1 (-2.9) | 133.5 (+5.5) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2024 | SMU 80 – 77 ECU |
| Feb 19, 2023 | SMU 86 – 70 ECU |
| Feb 4, 2023 | ECU 77 – 72 SMU |
| Feb 12, 2022 | SMU 80 – 66 ECU |
| Feb 8, 2021 | SMU 71 – 56 ECU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-9 | 14-3 |
| Away | 3-7 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 76.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 69.0 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#194) | 11.8 (#36) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#198) | 1.23 (#82) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.26 (#201) | 1.87 (#73) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#224) | 0.546 (#102) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 40.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 37.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 17.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 41.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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