I'm gonna tell you how it's gonna be. "Not Fade Away"-The Rolling Stones
East Carolina Pirates
64 75
FINAL Conference
SMU Mustangs
American Conference · Williams Arena at Minges Coliseum · January 13, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread SMU -4.5 Away covered
O/U 136.5 Over
Money ECU +163 / SMU -213
Model Predictions
Spread Total ECU win
Actual SMU +11 139 Lost
Massey SMU -9.2 (-1.8)
Massey Totals 133.0 (+6.0)
Bradley-Terry 33%
Weighted B-T 21%
Efficiency Plus ML SMU -7.4 (-3.6) 132.7 (+6.3) 28%
Baseline Tuned ML SMU -7.2 (-3.8) 133.4 (+5.6) 21%
Baseline ML SMU -7.7 (-3.3) 134.4 (+4.6) 20%
Baseline Plus ML SMU -8.1 (-2.9) 133.5 (+5.5) 22%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 7, 2024 SMU 8077 ECU
Feb 19, 2023 SMU 8670 ECU
Feb 4, 2023 ECU 7772 SMU
Feb 12, 2022 SMU 8066 ECU
Feb 8, 2021 SMU 7156 ECU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ECU SMU
Overall 15-18 20-13
Conference 7-11 11-7
Home 11-9 14-3
Away 3-7 5-8
Neutral 1-2 1-2
Last 5 3-2 4-1
Streak L1 L3
Avg Pts For 68.6 76.7
Avg Pts Against 70.6 69.0
Massey -1.5 (#194) 11.8 (#36)
Bradley-Terry -0.23 (#198) 1.23 (#82)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.26 (#201) 1.87 (#73)
RPI 0.475 (#224) 0.546 (#102)
Shooting & Four Factors ECU SMU
FG% 43.4% 45.9%
3PT% 31.5% 35.6%
REB / G 35.7 40.5
OREB / G 12.5 13.4
AST / TO 1.13 1.26
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.1% 52.1%
TOV% 16.0% 18.4%
ORB% 34.8% 37.4%
FT Rate 25.4% 17.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.5% 41.4%
Opp TOV% 19.3% 19.1%
DRB% 68.0% 68.8%
Opp FT Rate 24.8% 23.1%

Game Analysis

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