Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | ECU +110 SMU -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ECU +5 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | ECU -2.4 (+2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.1 (+9.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ECU -2.0 (+3.0) | 144.5 (+4.5) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ECU -2.1 (+2.9) | 142.9 (+6.1) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ECU -1.4 (+3.6) | 143.9 (+5.1) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ECU -1.8 (+3.2) | 145.1 (+3.9) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2024 | SMU 80 – 77 ECU |
| Jan 13, 2024 | SMU 75 – 64 ECU |
| Feb 19, 2023 | SMU 86 – 70 ECU |
| Feb 12, 2022 | SMU 80 – 66 ECU |
| Feb 8, 2021 | SMU 71 – 56 ECU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-6 | 7-9 |
| Away | 2-9 | 1-11 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 75.6 |
| Massey | -2.9 (#224) | -1.8 (#213) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.57 (#234) | -0.52 (#227) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#216) | -0.30 (#195) |
| RPI | 0.451 (#268) | 0.495 (#181) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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