Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | SMU -1000 ECU +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +3 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | SMU -15.3 (-12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.2 (+21.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -10.2 (-7.2) | 139.4 (+17.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -12.2 (-9.2) | 137.7 (+19.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -12.1 (-9.1) | 139.9 (+17.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -12.5 (-9.5) | 139.0 (+18.0) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 13, 2024 | SMU 75 – 64 ECU |
| Feb 19, 2023 | SMU 86 – 70 ECU |
| Feb 4, 2023 | ECU 77 – 72 SMU |
| Feb 12, 2022 | SMU 80 – 66 ECU |
| Feb 8, 2021 | SMU 71 – 56 ECU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 14-3 | 11-9 |
| Away | 5-8 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.7 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 70.6 |
| Massey | 10.7 (#48) | -1.3 (#181) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.05 (#94) | -0.28 (#203) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.61 (#80) | -0.24 (#183) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#105) | 0.477 (#231) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 14.3 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 38.7% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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