Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | ECU +240 SMU -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +15 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | SMU -5.4 (-9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.3 (-14.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -2.8 (-12.2) | 136.6 (-9.6) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -3.8 (-11.2) | 140.6 (-13.6) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -3.7 (-11.3) | 139.0 (-12.0) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -3.6 (-11.4) | 138.9 (-11.9) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2024 | SMU 80 – 77 ECU |
| Jan 13, 2024 | SMU 75 – 64 ECU |
| Feb 19, 2023 | SMU 86 – 70 ECU |
| Feb 4, 2023 | ECU 77 – 72 SMU |
| Feb 12, 2022 | SMU 80 – 66 ECU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-11 | 11-6 |
| Conference | 2-10 | 7-4 |
| Home | 7-6 | 6-2 |
| Away | 1-4 | 5-2 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 74.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 68.1 |
| Massey | 1.7 (#139) | 9.6 (#58) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.60 (#132) | 2.17 (#37) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.92 (#119) | 2.64 (#43) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#151) | 0.554 (#79) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.3% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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