Space travel's in my blood. "Another Girl, Another Planet" - The Only Ones
SMU Mustangs
86 70
FINAL Conference
East Carolina Pirates
American Conference · Moody Coliseum (Dallas) · February 19, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread SMU -6.5 Home covered
O/U 143.5 Over
Money SMU -300 / ECU +225
Model Predictions
Spread Total SMU win
Actual SMU +16 156 Won
Massey SMU -4.2 (+11.8)
Massey Totals 141.8 (+14.2)
Bradley-Terry 59%
Weighted B-T 62%
Efficiency Plus ML SMU -3.6 (+12.4) 146.2 (+9.8) 65%
Baseline Tuned ML SMU -2.8 (+13.2) 145.1 (+10.9) 64%
Baseline ML SMU -2.6 (+13.4) 145.7 (+10.3) 65%
Baseline Plus ML SMU -2.4 (+13.6) 146.1 (+9.9) 63%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 7, 2024 SMU 8077 ECU
Jan 13, 2024 SMU 7564 ECU
Feb 4, 2023 ECU 7772 SMU
Feb 12, 2022 SMU 8066 ECU
Feb 8, 2021 SMU 7156 ECU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SMU ECU
Overall 10-22 16-17
Conference 5-13 6-12
Home 7-9 10-6
Away 1-11 2-9
Neutral 2-2 4-2
Last 5 1-4 3-2
Streak L4 L1
Avg Pts For 70.2 68.8
Avg Pts Against 75.6 70.5
Massey -1.4 (#200) -2.0 (#212)
Bradley-Terry -0.50 (#225) -0.23 (#201)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.42 (#206) -0.16 (#185)
RPI 0.485 (#206) 0.463 (#255)
Shooting & Four Factors SMU ECU
FG% 42.1% 40.9%
3PT% 31.6% 31.6%
REB / G 35.1 37.4
OREB / G 10.1 12.6
AST / TO 1.07 1.02
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 47.4% 47.6%
TOV% 17.8% 19.0%
ORB% 27.0% 34.4%
FT Rate 21.5% 25.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.7% 49.5%
Opp TOV% 18.6% 17.4%
DRB% 69.3% 71.9%
Opp FT Rate 22.9% 23.4%

Game Analysis

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