Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | SMU -300 ECU +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +16 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | SMU -4.2 (+11.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.8 (+14.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -3.6 (+12.4) | 146.2 (+9.8) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -2.8 (+13.2) | 145.1 (+10.9) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -2.6 (+13.4) | 145.7 (+10.3) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -2.4 (+13.6) | 146.1 (+9.9) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2024 | SMU 80 – 77 ECU |
| Jan 13, 2024 | SMU 75 – 64 ECU |
| Feb 4, 2023 | ECU 77 – 72 SMU |
| Feb 12, 2022 | SMU 80 – 66 ECU |
| Feb 8, 2021 | SMU 71 – 56 ECU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 6-12 |
| Home | 7-9 | 10-6 |
| Away | 1-11 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#200) | -2.0 (#212) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.50 (#225) | -0.23 (#201) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.42 (#206) | -0.16 (#185) |
| RPI | 0.485 (#206) | 0.463 (#255) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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