Betting Lines
| Spread | UCR -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | UCSD +160 UCR -190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSD +23 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | UCR -3.3 (+26.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.4 (+17.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCR -3.4 (+26.4) | 132.9 (+14.1) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCR -2.0 (+25.0) | 133.8 (+13.2) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCR -2.4 (+25.4) | 135.2 (+11.8) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCR -1.6 (+24.6) | 132.9 (+14.1) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | UCSD 72 – 66 UCR |
| Jan 11, 2026 | UCSD 69 – 66 UCR |
| Feb 7, 2025 | UCSD 91 – 71 UCR |
| Jan 19, 2025 | UCR 85 – 81 UCSD |
| Feb 23, 2024 | UCSD 77 – 65 UCR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSD | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-16 | 16-12 |
| Conference | 0-0 | 9-6 |
| Home | 9-4 | 10-4 |
| Away | 4-11 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.4 | 65.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 64.3 |
| Massey | -6.1 (#270) | 0.2 (#162) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.02 (#262) | 0.35 (#149) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.02 (#250) | 0.16 (#168) |
| RPI | 0.444 (#270) | 0.520 (#142) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSD | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 29.8 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 5.9 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 18.4% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 45.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 77.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.9% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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