Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSD -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | UCR +360 UCSD -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCR +4 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | UCSD -8.8 (+12.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.7 (+24.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSD -7.5 (+11.5) | 139.3 (+26.7) | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSD -6.6 (+10.6) | 139.9 (+26.1) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCSD -7.5 (+11.5) | 140.6 (+25.4) | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSD -7.8 (+11.8) | 139.0 (+27.0) | 27% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | UCSD 72 – 66 UCR |
| Jan 11, 2026 | UCSD 69 – 66 UCR |
| Feb 7, 2025 | UCSD 91 – 71 UCR |
| Feb 23, 2024 | UCSD 77 – 65 UCR |
| Jan 26, 2024 | UCSD 66 – 65 UCR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCR | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 30-5 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 18-2 |
| Home | 14-1 | 13-2 |
| Away | 7-11 | 12-2 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 77.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.4 | 63.0 |
| Massey | -1.3 (#181) | 11.0 (#51) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.63 (#115) | 2.07 (#45) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.24 (#158) | 1.93 (#71) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#103) | 0.564 (#70) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCR | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 24.4% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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