Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSD -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | UCR +440 UCSD -600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSD +3 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | UCSD -10.9 (+7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.3 (-17.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSD -10.0 (+7.0) | 144.9 (-9.9) | 16% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSD -10.8 (+7.8) | 144.6 (-9.6) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSD -9.6 (+6.6) | 144.9 (-9.9) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSD -10.3 (+7.3) | 145.7 (-10.7) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | UCSD 72 – 66 UCR |
| Feb 7, 2025 | UCSD 91 – 71 UCR |
| Jan 19, 2025 | UCR 85 – 81 UCSD |
| Feb 23, 2024 | UCSD 77 – 65 UCR |
| Jan 26, 2024 | UCSD 66 – 65 UCR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCR | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 12-8 |
| Home | 7-7 | 10-5 |
| Away | 3-15 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.1 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -8.2 (#284) | 6.1 (#100) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.62 (#222) | 1.03 (#90) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#211) | 1.51 (#90) |
| RPI | 0.497 (#185) | 0.560 (#81) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCR | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 55.9% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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