Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSD -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | UCSD -750 UCR +525 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSD +6 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | UCSD -14.4 (-8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.6 (-5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSD -12.6 (-6.6) | 140.2 (-2.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSD -11.4 (-5.4) | 139.5 (-1.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSD -11.3 (-5.3) | 140.5 (-2.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSD -12.3 (-6.3) | 141.1 (-3.1) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2026 | UCSD 69 – 66 UCR |
| Feb 7, 2025 | UCSD 91 – 71 UCR |
| Jan 19, 2025 | UCR 85 – 81 UCSD |
| Feb 23, 2024 | UCSD 77 – 65 UCR |
| Jan 26, 2024 | UCSD 66 – 65 UCR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSD | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 5-15 |
| Home | 10-5 | 7-7 |
| Away | 8-5 | 3-15 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 79.1 |
| Massey | 3.3 (#117) | -8.2 (#291) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.48 (#118) | -1.19 (#277) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.70 (#111) | -1.20 (#252) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#122) | 0.462 (#252) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSD | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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