Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSD -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | UCSD -1000 UCR +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSD +20 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | UCSD -13.6 (+6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.3 (+19.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSD -11.8 (+8.2) | 142.3 (+19.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSD -13.0 (+7.0) | 142.5 (+19.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSD -12.5 (+7.5) | 143.4 (+18.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSD -12.5 (+7.5) | 143.1 (+18.9) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | UCSD 72 – 66 UCR |
| Jan 11, 2026 | UCSD 69 – 66 UCR |
| Jan 19, 2025 | UCR 85 – 81 UCSD |
| Feb 23, 2024 | UCSD 77 – 65 UCR |
| Jan 26, 2024 | UCSD 66 – 65 UCR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSD | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-5 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 14-6 |
| Home | 13-2 | 14-1 |
| Away | 12-2 | 7-11 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.5 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.0 | 76.4 |
| Massey | 10.8 (#55) | 0.4 (#156) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.87 (#51) | 1.20 (#81) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.80 (#70) | 0.85 (#110) |
| RPI | 0.573 (#57) | 0.560 (#72) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSD | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.1% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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